01 · The million-dollar explosion

In 2012, exactly two HDB flats crossed $1M. In 2025, it was 1,593 — one in every sixteen sales.

The million-dollar flat went from statistical anomaly to a routine Tuesday. The first was a Queenstown executive in July 2012 at exactly $1,000,000; the current record is $1.66M for a Queenstown 5-room (June 2025, floors 22–24). And the million-dollar capital isn't where you'd guess — it's Toa Payoh, whose post-2008 high-rise builds near the city now dominate the leaderboard.

Click a year to explore its breakdown

02 · The 80-year lease cliff

Lease decay isn't a slope — it's a cliff at 80 years, then a long flat shelf.

Conventional wisdom says every year of lease lost costs you steadily. The 2025 data says otherwise: 4-room flats with 80+ years left command ~$700K, but cross below the 80-year line and the median drops to ~$580K — then barely moves for the next 30 years of decay. A 75-year flat and a 52-year flat trade within $30K of each other. The market prices the cliff, not the slope — partly because CPF and loan financing rules tighten for shorter leases, and partly because 80+ means a newer flat in every other way too.

Median 2025 resale price of 4-room flats by remaining lease band. The 80–85 band spikes higher ($830K) because it's dominated by prime central blocks built around 2008–2010 (Toa Payoh, Kallang) — a composition effect on top of the cliff.

03 · The sky premium

The same 4-room flat costs 89% more on floor 28 than on floor 2.

Height is one of the strongest price drivers in the entire dataset — bigger than most town-to-town differences. A ground-band 4-room medians $570K in 2025; the same flat type above floor 28 medians $1.08M. The premium compounds quietly floor by floor, then accelerates sharply past floor 16 — where unblocked views begin and supply thins out fast (only ~500 sales above floor 22 all year).

04 · The towns the boom forgot

Everyone knows prices surged after COVID. Nobody mentions that Central Area fell.

From 2021 to 2025, the median Singapore town gained ~30%. Toa Payoh gained 68%. But the boom was wildly uneven: prime-adjacent Clementi (+11%) and Marine Parade (+10%) barely moved, and Central Area actually declined 8% — its 2021 median was inflated by a wave of premium flats hitting their 5-year mark, a mix that later normalised. The lesson: town-level "averages" can move on composition, not just demand.

05 · Small flats left behind

The boom rewarded space: 3-room flats grew 29% in 13 years while executives grew 46%.

Index every flat type to 100 in 2012 and the gap is unmistakable — the lines move together until 2020, then fan out. Post-COVID demand chased space: families upgrading, working from home, multi-generation living. The humble 3-room — the most affordable entry point — appreciated at barely 60% the rate of an executive flat. For buyers, that's a double-edged finding: 3-rooms are the relative bargain of 2025, but history says they also climb slowest.