Is now a good time to buy?
Over the past decade the low points in HDB resale prices were hard to spot until well after they had passed. For most buyers, which flat they choose has mattered more than when they bought it.
Many buyers wonder whether to buy now or wait for prices to cool. Nobody wants to commit just before a fall. Here is what the last decade of prices says about that.
Ten years of prices
Since 2015 the median HDB resale price has risen about 55%, but not steadily. Prices fell slowly through the years of cooling measures, reached a low around 2019, and have risen strongly since 2020:
The declines were slow and shallow
There was no crash in this period. The weakest stretch was a 12% fall over six years, from a peak in 2013 to a low in 2019, while a series of cooling measures held the market back. HDB's official Resale Price Index shows the same pattern. A decline that slow is hard to recognise while it is happening. By the time 2019 was clearly the low point, it was 2021 and prices had already risen by more than 10%.
Over the decade, a flat cost more a year later in about two years out of three. Waiting for a lower price more often meant paying a higher one.
If you are selling one HDB flat to buy another
In that case you are selling and buying in the same market. A strong market raises the price of the flat you buy, but also the price of the one you sell, and a weak market lowers both. For upgraders, downgraders and people moving, what matters is the difference between the two prices, more than whether the market as a whole is high or low that year.
Waiting has a cost
In each of the last three years the median rose by roughly 5% to 7%, about $30,000 a year on a $500,000 flat, and that is before any rent you pay while you wait. To come out ahead by waiting, you would need a fall that is deeper and quicker than anything in the past decade apart from that one slow decline. It could happen, but it has not been the usual outcome.
What matters more than timing
Several things you can control have a bigger effect than the market cycle. The flat itself (its location, remaining lease and floor) moves the price far more than a year of market change, as the guides on the MRT premium and lease decay show. How long you hold the flat evens out the point in the cycle when you bought. And paying a fair price for the flat you choose is up to you in a way the market is not. The fair-price guide covers how to judge that.
What this means for you
Practical points
- Low points are hard to spot. The only sustained decline in the decade was 12% over six years, and it was only obvious afterwards.
- Waiting has usually cost money. Prices were higher a year later in about two years out of three, and each of the last three years added 5–7%.
- If you are selling one HDB flat to buy another, the market level largely cancels out. Focus on the gap between your sale price and your purchase price.
- Concentrate on the flat. Location, lease and paying a fair price affect the outcome more than timing the cycle.
None of this is a forecast. The last ten years do not tell you what the next ten will do, and this guide describes past prices rather than giving advice on whether to buy or wait. The point is that timing the market is hard, and there are other decisions where your effort counts for more.
The Overview charts median prices by flat type and the number of sales in every year since 2012.